NextConsensus
Discuss a Program

Rebuild what was knowable—without leaking what happened next.

These cases rebuild how a claim moved through the public record. Where a rebuild has been through the reproducibility check, two analysts worked it independently and the comparison is published alongside it; the status of each is on its card. They demonstrate reconstruction rather than forecasting: nothing here is a registered forecast or a calibration result.

7 Cases in the library
2 With source-level provenance rebuilt
1 Past the reproducibility gate

Cases marked “watch” have not yet been through the two-analyst reproducibility check.

Reconstruction state:
Affected claim element:

Showing all historical reconstructions.

Cardiorenal Public example No change shown

Cardiorenal evidence review: CKD progression and cardiovascular outcomes

Nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist · Evidence Stability Review

CKD associated with Type 2 Diabetes

No material change shown for current intended use, subject to existing caveats.

Sourced from FDA labels, pivotal trial publications, and two major guideline bodies. Two phase 3 trials (n=13,026 pooled) with consistent kidney and cardiovascular composite outcomes. Guideline recommendations strengthened from suggested to recommended (Level A) over the observation window.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2020-10 FIDELIO-DKD primary results published
  • 2022-08 FDA label expansion to include CV indication
  • 2024-05 KDIGO guidance elevated recommendation to Level A · Illustrative
Metabolic Public example Watch

Metabolic evidence example (T1D)

Anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody · Regulatory Review

Type 1 Diabetes

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Historical example of evidence movement preceding formal regulatory recognition.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2022-11 First phase 3 readout in T1D population
  • 2023-07 Advisory committee discussion
  • 2024-02 Label expansion in comparator jurisdiction
Neurodegenerative Public example Review candidate

Sample Review Package: Restriction Review for Amyloid-Directed Therapy in Early Alzheimer's Disease

Amyloid-directed therapy · Coverage Review

Early Alzheimer's Disease

Evidence-supported scope has changed relative to stated use; a qualified reviewer should take another look.

A broad coverage topic narrowed to one testable disputed claim, a one-page committee baseline, and a source-bound audit appendix. Public-domain concepts only.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2021-06 Accelerated approval based on surrogate endpoint
  • 2023-01 CMS National Coverage Determination issued
  • 2024-07 Confirmatory trial CDR-SB results published
Neurodegenerative Public example Watch

Neurodegenerative review (Alzheimer's)

Anti-amyloid monoclonal antibody · Safety Review

Alzheimer's Disease

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Historical example separating source-supported safety questions from public speculation.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2023-01 Safety signal surfaced in post-market registry
  • 2023-09 Regulatory request for enhanced safety review · Illustrative
  • 2024-12 Updated adverse-event meta-analysis · Illustrative
Metabolic Public example Review candidate

Semaglutide (illustrative example): from high-risk comorbidity settings to general obesity weight management

GLP-1 receptor agonist · Population Drift Review

Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity

Evidence-supported scope has changed relative to stated use; a qualified reviewer should take another look.

The same molecule is now being promoted in a broader population than the pivotal trials primarily studied. The move from high-risk diabetic or cardiovascular settings to general weight-management settings changes the strength of the supporting evidence and the review action.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2017-12 Initial FDA approval for Type 2 Diabetes
  • 2021-06 FDA approval for chronic weight management in adults with obesity or overweight with at least one weight-related comorbidity
  • 2024-03 SELECT trial cardiovascular outcomes published · Illustrative
  • 2025-01 CMS coverage determination for obesity indication issued · Illustrative
Metabolic Public example Watch May warrant review

GLP-1 receptor agonist claim history: diabetes to obesity indication

GLP-1 receptor agonist · Provenance Review

Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Reconstructed from 22 public encyclopedia revisions. Three claim families emerged: diabetes/family-history indication, obesity/weight-management indication, and a disputed pathway.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2009-01 Article created around GLP-1 agonists for type 2 diabetes
  • 2010-01 Dose and family-history details added
  • 2021-08 Obesity and weight-management claim drift appears
  • 2023-11 Disputed pathway surfaced by reverting edit pattern
Metabolic Public example Watch May warrant review

Liraglutide claim history: single-drug provenance reconstruction

Liraglutide · Provenance Review

Type 2 Diabetes / Obesity

Observable movement within the stated review window; no conclusion is implied.

Reconstructed from 20 public encyclopedia revisions. Twenty-two stable claim families emerged; two-analyst reproducibility validation is pending.

Research use: test whether the source state, cutoff, and subsequent transition can be reconstructed without temporal leakage.

Source timeline
  • 2010-01 Liraglutide mentioned as under investigation in broader GLP-1 article
  • 2010-01 Approval status and dosing details added
  • 2012-01 Article structure stabilizes around approved indications
  • Historical reconstruction is labeled separately from prospective registration and resolution.
  • Later outcomes cannot enter the evidence state at the declared cutoff.
  • These cases test provenance and temporal integrity; they do not demonstrate calibration or useful lead time.