Example forecast specification.

The structure of a transition forecast: defined proposition, frozen evidence cutoff, declared baselines, objective resolution rule.

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Forecast specification

The fields that define this proposition

These fields are what make the proposition resolvable and scoreable.

An example. The live record is FF-001.

Forecast Specification Specification

Target rung

7 — Payer/coverage action

Proposition

Will CMS issue a national coverage determination expanding access to amyloid-directed therapy for biomarker-confirmed early Alzheimer's disease by Q1 2027?

Authority

CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)

Event class

Coverage expansion

Deadline

Q1 2027

Evidence cutoff

January 2026

Method version

v0.1.0

Forecast threshold

70%

Primary comparator rung

Rung 3 — Expert recognition & KOL convergence

Comparator timestamp rule

First date when ≥3 independent KOL sources express directional consensus in peer-reviewed commentary or major conference proceedings

Operational constraint

Precision at 70% threshold ≥ predefined minimum

Countervailing factors

Implementation complexity, budget impact, or stakeholder resistance

Registration hash

nc-39c02226c4ad How to verify

Baseline plan

Base-rate

Computed from the declared historical cohort

Heuristic

Frozen rules scored on the same cohort

Expert

Structured elicitation under the same resolution rule

LLM

Controlled prompt baseline with version recorded

Resolution rule

CMS publishes a final national coverage determination that expands access beyond the current restricted coverage.

Upstream states at freeze

Rung 1–4 states locked at evidence cutoff

Rungs 1–4 record the public evidence state at cutoff. Later evidence belongs to a new registration.

Rung 1 Evidence emergence High — pivotal trial published upstream

Rung 2 Replication & strengthening Moderate — one confirmatory study upstream

Rung 3 Expert recognition & KOL convergence Moderate — growing consensus in review articles upstream

Rung 4 Real-world confirmation Low — registry data accumulating upstream

Rung 5 Guideline action Not yet initiated resolvable

Rung 6 Regulatory action Label approved (restricted) resolvable

Rung 7 Payer/coverage action Forecast target resolvable

Bottleneck diagnosis

Where the transition chain is limiting

The rung currently limiting downstream movement.

Primary bottleneck

Rung 4→5 translation: Insufficient real-world confirmation to trigger guideline procedural signal, which historically precedes coverage expansion.

Mechanism Hypothesis

The transition is likely to stall at rung 4 → 5 because real-world evidence confirmation has not yet reached the threshold that historically precedes guideline procedural signals. Until RWE signals strengthen, the momentum for authority action remains low.

Every forecast we register

What comes with the specification

Scoring means nothing unless the forecast is sealed off from hindsight and from your internal context. Four things hold that line.

Independent resolution: Outcomes are adjudicated using pre-registered source documents.

Calibration controls: Accuracy is evaluated against naive base-rates and heuristic baselines.

Temporal freeze: All evidence is locked at the cutoff date to eliminate hindsight bias.

Your data stays yours: forecasts are built from the public record alone, so there is nothing of yours to leak.

What it's for

Built to arrive before a date you already have.

A brief is registered against a decision date you bring — a coverage review, a launch gate, an evidence strategy window. The probability and its frozen evidence state go on the record ahead of that date, giving your team a dated basis to work from while the authority's process is still open.

Whether earlier notice changes the decision is itself under test, not an established result. See Programs.