Check it yourself.

Every published forecast carries a hash built from its own fields. Run the same calculation on those fields and you get the same hash back — so if anything in a registration had been quietly changed after the fact, the number would no longer match. You do not have to take our word for any of it, which is the point.

Review the Method View the Example Forecast

Scheme nc-v1

How it works

The fields are written out in a fixed order and run through SHA-256. The short hash you see published is the first twelve characters of that digest with an nc- prefix. Because the order never varies, the same fields always give the same answer — and any change to any field gives a different one.

Serialization format (nc-v1)

scheme=nc-v1
method=v0.1.0
proposition=Will CMS issue a national coverage determination expanding access to amyloid-directed therapy for biomarker-confirmed early Alzheimer's disease by Q1 2027?
authority=CMS (Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services)
rung=7 — Payer/coverage action
deadline=Q1 2027
evidence_cutoff=January 2026
threshold=70%
resolution=CMS publishes a final national coverage determination that expands access beyond the current restricted coverage.

Hash scope

What the hash covers

And what it deliberately leaves out.

Covers

Proposition
Authority
Target rung
Deadline
Evidence cutoff
Threshold
Resolution rule
Method version

Does not cover

Client context or proprietary inputs
Any probability value — nothing is registered until a forecast registers

Live check

Verify live

The serialized fields below are the example forecast specification. Recompute the hash in your browser and compare it to the published record.

scheme=nc-v1
method=v0.1.0
proposition=Will CMS issue a national coverage determination expanding access to amyloid-directed therapy for biomarker-confirmed early Alzheimer's disease by Q1 2027?
authority=CMS (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services)
rung=7 — Payer/coverage action
deadline=Q1 2027
evidence_cutoff=January 2026
threshold=70%
resolution=CMS publishes a final national coverage determination that expands access beyond the current restricted coverage.

Published short hash nc-39c02226c4ad

Full SHA-256 39c02226c4ad65ed6b2d4d3066ae1d7a6bebab09ad72ffe08bdddad6483a3ead

Public registry

The registration ledger

Every registration lands here with its hash. The ledger is honest about what exists and what does not.

Record Status Hash

Example forecast specification (CMS amyloid coverage) Format demonstration nc-39c02226c4ad

Method version v0.1.0 Current scheme nc-v1

Registered forecasts None yet — the registry fills as forecasts are registered and resolved —

No forecast is registered yet. Every future registration lands here with its hash.

Independent check

Verify independently

Run the recomputation outside this page with Node.js. Any environment that can SHA-256 the serialized fields reproduces the published hash.

node -e "const {createHash}=require('node:crypto');const t=process.argv[1];console.log(createHash('sha256').update(t).digest('hex'))" "scheme=nc-v1
method=v0.1.0
proposition=Will CMS issue a national coverage determination expanding access to amyloid-directed therapy for biomarker-confirmed early Alzheimer's disease by Q1 2027?
authority=CMS (Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services)
rung=7 — Payer/coverage action
deadline=Q1 2027
evidence_cutoff=January 2026
threshold=70%
resolution=CMS publishes a final national coverage determination that expands access beyond the current restricted coverage."